China’s marriage registrations to fall record low in 2024: Expert

China’s marriage registrations in 2024 are expected to hit a record low since 1980, according to a demographic expert. The number of marriage registrations in the first half of this year decreased by 498,000, adding to the country’s looming demographic crisis. The decline in marriage numbers is likely to contribute to the declining birth rates, which have been falling steadily over the years due to the rapid rise of the aging population. Data from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs shows that 3.43 million Chinese couples got married during the first half of 2024, a decrease of 498,000 couples compared to the same period last year. Additionally, 1.27 million couples got divorced.

An independent demographic expert, He Yafu, who tracks marriage registration data, predicts that based on the current trend, the annual figure of marriage registrations in 2024 will drop to a record low since 1980. The decrease in the number of marriage registrations since 2014 was attributed to a decrease in the young population, gender imbalance with more men than women among the marriageable population, postponement of the age of first marriage, high costs of getting married, and changing attitudes toward marriage.

It is anticipated that the continued decline in the number of marriage registrations in 2024 indicates that the number of newborns will also decrease in 2025. Experts suggest that in the long run, the declining trend in China’s birth rate will be difficult to change fundamentally unless substantial childbirth support policies are implemented to address this challenge. The overall population of China has been declining, and last year it fell by 2.08 million to 1.4097 billion, down from 1.4118 billion in 2022.

This decline has led to India surpassing China as the most populous country in the world in 2023. China’s population saw its first decline in six decades in 2022 following a new low in the birth rate, which was a result of the one-child policy pursued by the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) to control population growth.

Economists have warned that the Chinese economy, which previously benefited greatly from a demographic dividend, will face challenges including a declining working-age population, weaker spending power, and a strained social security system as its population continues to age.

Professor Peng Xizhe from the Centre for Population and Development Policy Studies at Fudan University predicts a further decline in China’s overall population in the coming years. It’s highly likely that the population will continue to decrease, according to Peng’s statements to the South China Morning Post earlier this year.

The demographic crisis has been largely attributed to a decades-old one-child policy that was abolished in 2016, after which China allowed all couples to have two children. In 2021, China passed a revised Population and Family Planning Law allowing Chinese couples to have three children and announced a number of incentives to encourage people to have more children, in an apparent attempt to address the reluctance of couples to have more kids due to rising costs.